Prediction markets do not just have a product problem. They have a branding problem.

The product is useful. It may even be better than polls, pundits, and the best truth seeking instrument out there. But most people still place it in the same mental bucket as sports betting.

In 1954, Marlboro had a similiar problem. Filtered cigarettes were seen as feminine. The brand’s slogan was “Mild as May.” The packaging was designed to hide lipstick stains. Men wanted filters, because the early health data was starting to trickle in, but they didn’t want to be seen holding a woman’s cigarette.

Leo Burnett, the ad man Philip Morris hired to fix this, didn’t try to educate men about filter technology.

He didn’t run charts about tar reduction. He didn’t appeal to reason at all. Instead, he put a cowboy on a horse in the American wilderness and stuck a filtered Marlboro between his lips. Within two years, sales went from $5 billion to $20 billion.

Leo’s genius wasn’t associating Marlboro with cowboys, but resolving a specific tension the customer already felt. Men wanted to do the sensible thing: use a filter, but didn’t want to feel less masculine for doing it. The cowboy gave them permission. He turned a health concession into a strength signal.

Prediction markets have an eerily similiar tension right now. And nobody has solved it yet.

Right now, the category asks the user to cross an awkward social gap. The user wants to feel sharp, independent, someone who is willing to put money where their mouth is and take non-consensus positions. But the product still risks making them look like a gambler. All the language around “event contracts” and “forecasting tools” falls flat. People don’t want to listen to another podcast of Kalshi founders explaining PvP vs House and the business model of exchanges.

The category has utility, but no clean archetype.

The current category is muddled because it signals too many things at once. Investor. Trader. Bettor. Forecaster. Political obsessive. Crypto speculator. None of these fully works as the public face of the product. Some are too cold. Some are too degenerate. Others are too niche.

In a world full of cheap opinions, there is real status in being willing to attach consequences to a view.

That is why the best prediction-market branding will not focus first on regulation, market structure, or financial language. It will focus on self-image. What kind of person uses this product, and what does that say about them?

Marlboro worked because it turned a potential weakness into a strength signal. Prediction markets need to do the same. The breakthrough will come when using one feels less like placing a bet and more like showing that you are willing to stand behind your view.